市场出版物

U.S. 住房- Déjà vu Over Again? Part 2

In Part 1 博天堂注册这个博客,我们讨论了以下几点:

  1. 财经媒体到处都在报道房地产泡沫:泡沫即将到来, 这里有一个气泡, 泡沫来了又去. 共识仍然是难以捉摸的.
  2. 为什么当前的房价没有构成泡沫,尽管他们普遍的说法.

在本博客的第二部分中,我们将重点关注两个重要的后续内容:

  1. 为什么泡沫会发生以及泡沫后创伤后应激障碍的影响.
  2. 为什么基本面因素证明大多数房价上涨是合理的,为什么, 期待, 应该会有更多的收益.

为什么泡沫会发生以及泡沫后创伤后应激障碍的影响

Perhaps the foremost expert on financial bubbles is Charles Kindleberger via his bible on financial dislocations: Manias, Panics, 和崩溃:金融危机的历史. 在评估过去几个世纪的各种泡沫和随之而来的灾难时, 他指出了类似的模式:

  1. 过剩始于一种新颖的想法. Some examples from our recent include the idea of “clicks and eyeballs” as well as the assertion that “housing prices have never gone down en masse across the entire country.”
  2. 信贷和外国资本流入扩大. 这就产生了对预期产品相对于其供给的额外需求. 在新创造的货币的支持下,这两类货币的规模进一步扩大. 当然,随着需求量的增长快于供应量,价格也会上涨.
  3. 资本家进入市场. 看到对产品的新需求, 资本家利用价格上涨, 需求方和供应方:
    1. 在需求方, people purchase either with the intent of reselling at a higher price or bring forward their own demand curves because purchasing it today would be more cost-effective than waiting to buy it when the product is truly needed and prices are even higher.
    2. 在供应方面, manufacturers see an opportunity to accrue super-normal profits and take on capital to build more production facilities with the intent of satisfying the increased demand.
  4. 物价继续上涨 因为需求持续增长,保持在供给增长之前. 正是在这一点上,一个“新范式”得以确立, 物价上涨有许多正当理由. These beget even further expansions in credit and eventual price increases as those inside the bubble on both the demand side and the supply side are blissfully unaware of their peril.
  5. 需求最终枯竭 because much of the demand was not organic demand but rather self-fulfilling demand banking on higher prices to beget further higher prices. This comes from combination of reduced credit and/or no more “greater fools” left in the pool of potential buyers. Additionally, market insiders, 认识到目前的价格不久之前就把价值抛到了九霄云外, 开始拿着他们的蛋蛋回家, 加剧了供需失衡. At this point, 价格的上涨形成了一个空穴, 逐渐演变为一大批卖家的急剧下滑, 由过剩产能的扩张所推动, 买家的短缺.
  6. 人们争先恐后地涌向出口 当市场的其他部分最终发现欺诈时,这就是“新范式”.“如果资产流动性更强(e.g.(如股市),多数情况下下跌是在紧接着发生的,之后还会有一些剩余的下跌. 如果资产流动性较差(e.g.(如房地产),下跌需要更长的时间. 无论如何,我们在上升过程中看到的反馈循环(i.e., 不断上涨的价格带来了更多的需求, which beget even further price increases) reverses into an analogous dynamic on the way down: falling prices beget more desire to sell, 产生额外的价格贬值.

事后诸葛亮, 我们可以看到,互联网泡沫和房地产泡沫正是遵循这个脚本. 那么,当时发生的和现在发生的有什么区别呢? 主要有两个问题:后泡沫时期的创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)和基本面.

泡沫破裂后创伤后应激障碍

泡沫破裂后创伤后应激障碍 happens after EVERY bubble. In essence, 那些被泡沫烧伤的人一直在提防泡沫的重演, 哪种方法可以有效地防止泡沫的发生. 这就是为什么泡沫不会规律性地发生, 当泡沫再次出现时, 它们要么拥有不同的资产,要么处于不同的地理位置. Some of the most famous bubbles such as Tulip mania and the South Sea and Mississippi bubbles occurred 300-400 years ago. 对于更近期的年份,我们有一些值得注意的例子(按时间顺序):20世纪20年代的美国.S. stock market bubble; late 1970s precious metals bubble; late 1980s Japanese economy, stock, and real estate bubble; late 1990s internet stock bubble; and the mid-2000s U.S. housing bubble.

正如历史上每一次繁荣和随后的萧条所显示的那样, 投资者避开了前一个领域, 无论是资产类别, geography, or both. They develop a bunker mentality for the asset that prompted the crisis; we all know the dynamic: 一朝被蛇咬,十年怕井绳. Of course, 理性的做法是在危机后增加风险, 然而,从行为上来说,这是一件很难做到的事情. In fact, investors often go so far as to go in the opposite direction by betting against the crisis well after the crisis has ended. Think about all the investors who invested in hedge funds and tail-risk strategies well after the Global Financial Crisis ended (and in some cases continue to do so), 哪一个是最优投资策略的反面. The lasting effects of the most recent crisis persistently cause investors to erroneously fight the last war rather than following the historical template of the next war, which ironically causes them to miss out on what generally end up being tremendous investment opportunities. 我们称之为后泡沫创伤后应激障碍,这就是为什么泡沫很难被再次吹破.

A perfect example is the plethora of bubble calls for the technology sector in the early-to-mid-2010s:

Investors were still so traumatized from the internet stock bust on the heels of the 1990s bubble that the obvious call was that another tech bubble had developed. However, 我们可以回顾一下那次会议的结果:2010年是技术主导的十年, 导致许多忧心忡忡的投资者减持这一庞然大物.

我们认为,当前的房地产市场和潜在的心态是类似的. 一个不到15年前爆炸的行业开始站稳脚跟, “专家们”已经准备好做出“显而易见”的判断:一个新的泡沫正在形成, 尤其是在相对较短的一段时间内,房地产市场极其火爆. Thus, 由于近因偏见,巴普洛夫对泡沫的呼吁, a call which we referenced in Part 1 of the blog and which we are likely to see ad nauseum over the coming years as the housing market continues its ascent.

为什么基本面因素证明大多数价格上涨是合理的,为什么, 期待, 应该会有更多的收益

这可以主要归结为一个统计数据, 有两个重要的次级统计数据:房屋开工率, demographics, and mortgages.

减少房屋供应. 在房地产泡沫时期发生的过度建设之后, 房屋开工大幅下降(图1).

Of course, 这是必要的, as a housing surplus developed during both the ascent of the housing bubble (houses were being built for both owners who were destined not to be able to remain in them as well as speculators trying to make a quick buck) and during the decline (as the foreclosure glut mounted and then went through the process). A plunge in housing starts was just what the doctor ordered to clear the glut while builders and speculators who were left holding the proverbial bag cleared their inventory.

However, 就像所有的钟摆一样, 房地产供过于求的情况太严重了, becoming a housing deficit as millennials who had theretofore been shacking with their parents were now on the prowl for housing as household formation took off. So, 而冠状病毒通过对住房的疯狂争夺加剧了这一动态, 供需失衡已经存在. This in not unlike what we saw in the oil market as oil prices plunged – rigs were taken offline as excess capacity became apparent in the wake of plunging oil demand.

Most people are unaware of exactly how few homes have been built in this country over the last decade or so. 将图1中的图放到透视图中, 从1977年3月到1978年11月, we averaged ~1.每月有500万户独栋房屋开工.S. 人口约为2.2亿. 2020年12月,美国政府宣布.S. 人口3.3亿, 然而,新冠疫情爆发后的房屋开工“泡沫”仅为1.300万-人口增加了50%但住房开工却减少了! 并将其发挥到极致, 2009年3月新房开工率仅为353套,000, 与1相比.300万美元是50年前美国建造的.S. 1.75亿人口仅仅是2009年3月人口的一半. 换句话说,在最极端的情况下,为两倍的人口建造的房屋减少了75%!

Figure 1. 60+ Years of U.S. 房屋开工率显示,过去10年以上的房屋开工率打破了历史先例

Source: St. 路易斯。美国联邦储备理事会(美联储,fed)

房屋需求增加. 我们不仅减少了供应,而且还有额外的需求驱动因素. 重要的是,这些需求驱动因素不像冠状病毒冲击那样短暂. Rather U.S. 人口统计数据表明,人们对住房有着强烈的压抑需求. 图2显示了历史和预测的年龄范围. 年龄分组如下:

  • Green:住房需求可能强劲的年龄层
  • Yellow:对住房有适度需求或有可能开始向外扩张的年龄
  • Red:年龄大,有卖房子的潜力
  • Black:年龄对住房市场几乎没有直接影响

随着我们从较早的日期进展到较晚的日期, we can see a growing number of age brackets with higher housing demand growing as a percentage of the U.S. population. While many assumed that millennials scarred by the Global Financial Crisis would live in apartments or with their parents ad infinitum, 2020年的数据表明,千禧一代的购房进程正在顺利进行. And if what we have seen of late is indicative of the future trend (excluding the effect of the coronavirus bounce), 我们在乡下将需要更多的房子, 一个需要很多年才能完全发挥作用的龙头.

Moreover, 随着购房群体的增长, 我们没有看到婴儿潮一代的大幅增长, 哪些可能是卖家(i.e., the groups in red). While it’s possible that some inventory may come onto the market late in the 2020s and into the 2030s, 这绝不是一个保证,很可能需要时间才能实现. So, the idea that there is going to be a huge flood of supply to hit the market imminently is highly unlikely.

结合这两种动态的影响, simple supply and demand dynamics would dictate that housing prices should not only be rising now but also set for further gains in the future merely on the lower supply generated over the last 12-13 years.

Figure 2. 无论是现在还是未来,房地产市场的未来都将受到人口因素的强劲推动.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

抵押贷款的差异. 15年前导致房地产泡沫的一个关键因素就是抵押贷款的不良质量. Option ARMs, NINJA loans, 以及其他各种各样的次贷危机导致了住房需求的人为增长. 如今,情况大不相同. We would point to three components of today’s mortgages that make things different now than they were 15 years ago:

  1. 抵押贷款的质量要好得多,如图3所示. 在房地产泡沫高潮和结局的时候, 信用差的人比信用强的人发放了更多的抵押贷款. Now, however, the gap between high credit and low credit mortgages is higher than it has been in the last two decades.
  2. 抵押贷款博天堂注册对家庭来说远没有那么繁重,如图4所示. 用于支付抵押贷款的可支配收入要少得多, 目前的水平比2007年第四季度低了近40% (i.e., down from 13.2% to 8.2%). Of course, 部分原因是低利率, but that doesn’t change the fact that servicing mortgages is easier than it has been in the forty years of data, 尽管房价比当时要高.另一个重要的方面是,即使利率上升, 许多房主已经锁定了目前低利率下的长期还款. 这与2007年形成了鲜明对比, 当时许多银行都发放了只付利息的贷款,这些贷款会随着利率上升而重置.
  3. 抵押贷款现金流出较少,如所示 房地美网站如图7所示.

当然,这些都不能排除这种情况 eventually 成为一个泡沫. Although, 历史表明,泡沫不会再次出现, 我们必须承认这是有可能的. 然而,数据表明,目前没有泡沫,也没有什么迫在眉睫的事情.

Figure 3. 抵押贷款的质量远远优于15年前

资料来源:纽约联邦储备银行消费者信贷小组
Figure 4. 抵押贷款博天堂注册对家庭来说远没有那么繁重

Source: St. 路易斯。美国联邦储备理事会(美联储,fed)

 

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